Paper Industry Light Industry Weekly Report

Date:May 15, 2018

Paper Industry Light Industry Weekly Report: Foreign Waste Import Policy Continues To Tighten, And Packaging Paper Price Increases

Paper-making: The policy of importing waste paper continued to ferment, and the prices of waste and packaging paper in the country rose sharply.

    On the one hand, on the other hand, the implementation of the New Foreign Import and Waste Policy and the reduction of import quotas since March of this year have made China's waste prices go up. In addition, the announcement of the US's strict supervision policy on May 2 has driven the acceleration of China's waste prices. . This week, the national scrap prices closed at 2,972 yuan/ton, and the weekly gains reached 7.6%, the highest since the beginning of the year. On the demand side, wrappers gradually entered the peak season, and the high season stocking in advance + Jingdong 618 and Tmall’s ideal livelihood carnival season saw advances in demand for food and beverage, daily chemical and other industries, superimposed World Cup, weather and other event factors. We think this The demand for round packaging paper (mainly box-type corrugated paper) is expected to be better than market expectations.

    In the double drive of rising costs and rising demand in the downstream season, packaging paper prices rose sharply this week: the average price of boxboard paper this week was 5,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 534 yuan/ton from last week, and the average price of corrugated paper was 5,045 yuan/ton. This is an increase of 700 yuan/ton from the previous week. At the paper level, as of now, more than 100 paper companies in various provinces in the country have issued price-raising letters, and the prices have been raised by RMB 100-500/t, of which the prices for packing papers such as linerboard and corrugated paper are the main ones.

    With the superposition of external waste quotas and strict import restrictions, we expect that the amount of imported waste paper will be greatly reduced. The imbalance of national waste supply and demand will promote the increase of national waste prices, which will increase the price of downstream finished paper. In addition, the pressure on the cost side will squeeze out some small and medium-sized enterprises, and the industry concentration will continue to increase; while the leading companies have obvious cost advantages and strong transferability, profitability is expected to increase further. The papermaking section recommends focusing on Shanying Paper and Sun Paper. It is recommended to pay attention to Chenming Paper.

    Home: Competition in the industry tends to be fierce, and leading companies are entering a new stage of development

    In the medium to long term, the marginal reduction in real estate dividends and the fierce competition in the industry will require attention in the household industry. However, we believe that the custom furniture segment is still a subdivided section worth noting. On the one hand, the industry penetration rate still has room for improvement; On the other hand, leading enterprises are still in the stage of channel expansion and category expansion, and have strong anti-cyclical and anti-risk capabilities. Leading companies have obvious advantages in terms of channels, brands, costs, efficiency, and services. As consumption upgrades and awareness of consumer brands increase, the industry's concentration will further increase. In the process, leading companies will benefit significantly. . The home section focuses on Sofia, Oupai Home, Qumei Home, and Xilinmen; it is recommended to pay attention to Gujia Household, Zhibang, Haolaike and Daya.

    Packaging and other sectors: focus on industry leaders with clear competitive advantages

    The demand side of the packaging industry has picked up somewhat, but the continuous rise in upstream paper prices still weighed on the profitability of the industry. In the long run, the integration of the packaging industry is still a trend. Large-scale packaging companies will have full advantages in the industry consolidation process due to their high degree of integrated operations, strong cost control capabilities, and strong customer development capabilities, and they have strong comprehensive competitiveness. The packaging and other sections are advised to focus on Jingjia, Yutong, Hexing, and Meiyingsen. It is also recommended to pay attention to Chenguang stationery and a good wife.

    Risk Warning: The real estate boom is lower than expected, and raw material prices are rising.

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