Prices, price hikes, and later years of price increase in voice signaling, many of the small partners who talked about “paper” have actually broken down. This wave of price increases is so unpredictable. What are the reasons for the price increase and will the future rise? The author of this article, Ma Xiaobo, has 15 years of working experience in the paper industry. Now he is the sales director of everybody Zhihe (Beijing) Network Technology Co., Ltd. Let's hear what he said.
From the end of 2016 to the end of 2017, this wave of paper prices rose very rapidly. The rapid increase in the price of paper in the market has led to mid-stream and downstream companies not digesting a wave of price increases, and the follow-up price increase notification has already arrived. Feeling this paper's price increase is particularly crazy and unacceptable. The last paper price hike was in 2009-2010. At that time, the paper price increase was driven by raw materials. Following the price increase of bulk commodities such as wood pulp, paper mills had to start rising prices. In this case, the downstream companies There are psychological expectations and it is easier to accept the result of price increases. The wave of price increase from the end of 2016 to the end of 2017 is to start with the price of finished paper and the price of wood pulp lags behind. This seems to be a crazy increase in paper prices in the mid-stream and downstream companies, and the price changes are relatively abrupt. In the confusion, the price of paper went up one after another.
Different paper types have different price points. Low-end packaging papers were first launched, such as corrugated paper and ordinary kraft paper wrappers, and their analysis from the perspective of the environment was mainly due to the impact of the environmental storm at the end of 2016. In particular, many small and medium-sized paper mills in the northern region are severely polluted and their pollution control capacity is relatively weak. They are directly limited to production or shut down.
However, the demand for packaging papers continues to show a large increase due to the impact of the new economy. This led to a significant increase in the price of packaging paper. The once per ton of 2000 tons of corrugated paper rose to a maximum of 5,000 yuan per ton.
Papermaking itself is a heavy asset industry. It takes a time course from the start of production to production to production of stable production. Due to the large number of papermaking projects that were launched around 2008, most of the domestic papermaking companies were basically at a low profit or even losing money since 2011. At that time, the production capacity was too large and the supply was too much. This is directly caused by the fact that, in addition to the Jiangxi Chenming white cardboard project, white cardboard, coated paper, and offset paper have no new increased capacity in China in recent years, and the output of individual SMEs is shrinking. In this case, the market share of several large papermaking companies in China has further increased, and between paper mills there is the ability to pull the price of finished papers tacitly.
In recent days, many companies have dried up prices for cultural paper mills and white card mills. However, I think the current price increase situation remains to be seen. Starting from the rise in domestic finished paper, the price of wood pulp has also increased. As mentioned above, the price of domestic wood pulp at the peak was higher than that of foreign countries by more than 30%, resulting in a continuous increase in the amount of imported wood pulp. From the current point of view, the overall market demand is not very strong, the price of pulp is relatively stable, the price of pulp has also reached a high level, and the number of imported finished papers has continuously increased. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no possibility of further increase.
At the same time, at the beginning of 2018, domestic white cardboard, coated paper, and double-glued paper, the market price was inverted upside down, and the price was also rising downwards or falling steadily, but only because the paper mills of these paper types had better controllability. It is unlikely that the price will drop sharply. Correspondingly, the production capacity of low-end packaging paper is relatively decentralized, and the state's control over the import of waste paper and the classification of national waste are becoming more and more standardized. In particular, domestic capital is involved in the national waste market, which makes raw material prices for low-end packaging paper. Affected by speculative profits, the frequency and frequency of price fluctuations will increase, leading to a sharp rise in the price of paper. This is particularly noticeable in 2018.
In fact, from the perspective of the overall development of the domestic printing market, I believe that the rise in paper prices is a good thing. In 2016 and 2017, the price of paper went up and down. Although many difficulties were caused and some companies were unable to sustain it, high-quality enterprises actually gained more opportunities for development. These enterprises had stable business orders, adequate funds, and better enjoyment. The paper supply security and relatively favorable purchase prices. At the same time, some relatively tight small businesses will lose their competitiveness in 2016 and 2017. They will find that they have no advantage in the process of raw material fluctuations, or even be forced to withdraw from the market. The original orders are transferred to high-quality printing companies. The rise in paper prices has aggravated the division of the printing industry, and the effect of the survival of the fittest is even more pronounced. It is expected that the year 2018 will also be a year for printing companies to reshuffle.
As we all know, the pollution caused by the paper industry is more serious. This is also an important factor in the price increase. I think that after this wave of price increases, the environmental protection costs will be borne by our entire society, which means that the price of subsequent papers will be back to the lowest point in history. It is unlikely that we will usher in a green color in the future. In the paper-making, printing and packaging industries, the cost of environmental protection is still being digested by society. This is also a good thing.
In addition to promoting the differentiation of the industry, this time the increase in paper prices actually exposed the problems existing in the entire printing and packaging industry chain. As a traditional manufacturing industry, the printing industry is closely related to the entire economy. Each industry needs the support of the printing and packaging industry. Therefore, the prospects of our printing and packaging industry are very good, but where exactly is the specific direction? If we only develop towards a traditional light industry, we cannot see better prospects. We must explore ways to increase value, improve efficiency through the Internet, and how to use high-tech materials and technologies to increase added value. .
The printing industry is a very complex industry. It can involve materials and processes and involves various aspects. And I think we need to recognize that the printing industry is increasingly subject to changes in downstream demand. Past printing may be more of a processing service provider's role, but as the downstream demand changes dramatically, we have great dependence as service providers, and the market is pushing the industry forward, so we have to move and we have to stay the same.
Someone mentioned that an interesting change brought about by this wave of price increases is that the voice of printing companies and paper-making companies is changing. Papermaking is a very heavy asset industry. In terms of capital, scale, etc., paper enterprises have more advantages than printing companies. Therefore, the price of paper has risen or fallen since 2000 to 2015, and is used as a printing company's discourse in the downstream of the industrial chain. The power is relatively low. But the industry is changing and companies are changing. In recent years we have seen many excellent printing companies gradually listed, and they have also achieved better development through capital empowerment. Therefore, many printing companies now have a certain right to speak. This will be more apparent in the follow-up development. How to pay more attention to the voice of Indian enterprises is also a trend faced by papermaking companies.
In early 2017, the printer started the paper plate business and began to explore how to cooperate with our existing papermaking companies, distributors, and printing companies. We hope to use the Internet to build bridges to increase industry efficiency. In the ups and downs of paper prices, many printing companies will find that because of the asymmetry of information, they have certain limitations in the judgment of market trends, restrictions on supply of information, solidification of suppliers, etc. We hope to print. Home can provide services for printing companies and build a procurement platform that provides trustworthy, professional, and more supply service information for Indian companies, providing us with a full range of quality service capabilities. This is our direction.