On May 15th, the Solid Waste Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the twelfth batch of approved schedules for the restriction of import applications. Only two papermaking enterprises in this batch were granted import licenses, and one company replaced the port with the original permit. Only one company received new volume, and the approved volume was 23,255 tons.
The approved import volume is low
On May 2, the General Administration of Customs of China suddenly issued the "Notice of the General Administration of Customs on Implementing Risk Early Warning and Supervision Measures on Imports of U.S. Waste Raw Materials" without any indication. Subsequently, the China Certification and Inspection Group (CCIC) North American Branch officially announced the suspension of issuance. One month waste export certificate.
Affected by this policy, this batch of approved imports was only 23,000 tons, not only the least of the 12 batches, but also the nuclear quantification was less than the fraction of the previous batch.
In the previous batch, the sixth batch had the lowest nuclear quantification. At that time, due to the approach of the Spring Festival and the National Conference, the batch was only 18,290,500 tons, but the total amount was nearly 8 times that of the 12th batch.
According to the rhythm of the past few months, there will be a batch of imported wastes publicized in late May, but because CCIC stopped sending US-waste export certificates this month, it is expected that the next batch of nuclear quantification will still be very low.
Sino-US trade war affects packaging paper market
From March 8th, Trump signed an announcement confirming that imports of steel and aluminum products threaten US national security. It was decided on March 23 that tariffs (ie 232 measures) should be imposed on imported steel and aluminum products. Sino-U.S. trade The war officially started.
Afterwards, both sides came to me and each had a trick. The trade war was also escalated after the ZTE in April was embargoed by the United States. Limiting US imports of waste is only one of the countermeasures taken by China in the trade war this time, and it is not the main measure, but the impact on the packaging paper market in China is indeed enormous. Since this time, the price of national waste and finished packaging paper has soared. Within half a month, the price of tons of paper has increased by thousands. The rate of increase in the history of Chinese papermaking can also be said to be unprecedented.
The U.S. scrapped ban has not yet reached the point of time
Since the end of last week, with the large number of waste paper manufacturers shipping, the national waste price began to decline, and the speed is very fast. There are also rumors that with the “Zhongxing” being lifted, the US waste limit will be released earlier. However, according to news learned from the paper industry's internal information, although ZTE is about to be lifted, there is no such thing as “abolishing the ban”. According to the “Wall Street Journal”, as a condition, China will first reduce the tariffs on imports of agricultural products from the United States, and at the same time agree to Qualcomm’s plan to acquire NXP (small series note: the acquisition was announced in 2016, but it needs to go through the United States and China. The Ministry of Commerce of the world’s nine economies, Japan, and the European Union, has agreed to complete. At present, only China does not agree. If transactions cannot be completed before May 25th, Qualcomm will have to pay a cancellation fee of US$2 billion.)
As for the "abolishing the ban on the United States", as mentioned before, it is not itself the main means in the trade war. Compared with the contest of agricultural products and high-tech products, imported waste accounts for a negligible proportion of the trade volume between the two countries, and its importance is not Affect the lifeline of the country. At the same time, the restriction of imported waste itself is a long-term strategy formulated by China after the 19th National Congress and will be gradually implemented in the next few years. The current interim measures are only accelerating the progress of this pace.
In the long run, the fact that China's waste has become the most important raw material for papermaking will not change and its status will only become higher and higher. The degree of dependence on foreign waste will become lower and lower. As for the price trend, the relationship between supply and demand will always be fundamental!